Wednesday, 18 January 2017

A Breakfast Dinner

Blog 6                                                                                                                     18/01/2017

A Breakfast Dinner

Age may teach a judgement from a more overall distant view, both in physical and time-dimensions, it can, I hope, give valuable judgement. It is often said we would have made an alternative decision, if we had known that, then.

More and more I find track record and an awareness of the outcome of what has happened in the past in similar circumstances an indicator of a likelihood of something similar. All depends on memory unless you are a scholar. Sadly, brief life offers a dimmer - just when potentially we may be getting an understanding!

With the use of some of the attributes mentioned plus a great respect for balance- these are my present offers on the phenomena of Brexit- a name with a connotation of a large breakfast related to a dog’s dinner!

With the broader view with time and space it is only by comparison can we judge if one road may be of benefit over another. Often it is the secondary consequences of action which become the predominant issue, rather than the issue itself. It usually is over simplification just to grab an idea with conviction.

It is a sadness that I observe the phenomena of the divide. Binary is the order of the day as are computers. Today a better attribute is that individually we have our own ideas and minds, nuances of difference abound. Binary political Parties now are confused.

There is a choice to ignore different views, and Politicians to grasp their old friend ‘dogma’, just where did that land us in the past? Or, another trick may be to regain control/respect through the public being afraid, so gather support that way. Another ploy is all have a common enemy. If there are no common thoughts among us bring in a country or leader to hate. At least it helps to point all in a common direction. Is this not now wearing a little thin and becoming transparent?

The other potential controller is a significant down turn in the economy. At this time many are vulnerable when there is so much debt. The question is, is Brexit going to be successful. The Government faction leading are telling us it is as with UKIP.

Perhaps in Mrs May’s speech she tried to simplify our exit to avoid delay. Delay and uncertainty being bad for the economy, is this almost inevitable? If it is: at which stage would it be best to happen? Leaving the EU to sort out its own burdensome bureaucracy rather than this country employ droves of civil servants may be helpful? If indeed that is possible.

Perhaps magically the European Union could fly into the air and the pieces land in a more pleasing fashion with a movement to less, looser ties and a more overall agreement relating to immigration.

The chances of an effective independent immigration policy in Britain are not great. Successive governments have promised to control it for decades unsuccessfully. There are sounds from other EU countries that they too wish some control. The chances of agreed policies with these or/and the EU would I believe have a better opportunity of success and be less costly.

Usually, it does not make good sense to fall out with neighbours. Usually also, imbued with dogma and bravado may muster public enthusiasm temporarily, but when/if an economic downturn kicks in: it could well be great regret, rather than bravado for supporters of Brexit.

Starting negotiation with a new American President supporting Britain could well be treated with suspicion and mar good deals. The trade agreement TTIP with Europe has not been approved. Getting an agreement even through the back door could be favourable for the Americans. It needs to be remembered that the EU is a competitor.

Is this deal good for Britain? Does it involve GM crops and more pesticides and the sale of fracking equipment? American debt is enormous and dependant at present on the sale of armaments. The number of fines issued to foreign firms increases, barely a week goes by without one. Any trade agreement with them could increase our vulnerability.

Britain could jump out of a frying pan into a furnace. Another worrying factor is control of immigration and Brexit, is by trying to implement one in this present climate influenced by UKIP, could this lead to more racist attacks and bias: apart from making the Country more unpleasant? If this does not bother Brexiteers then unrest costs money- another down for the Economy.

Another alarming factor: is with the possibility of economic slowdown this could herald more deregulation. We have already in very recent memory been down this road. One would have hoped all would remember.

The good news is that our PM will not go ahead if ‘Leaving’ is worse than staying in, or rather more damaging. That was my understanding of her words. I just hope that this realization does not happen too late. My understanding says it could be.


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